I’m listening Financial markets course on Coursera platform and decided to make some math for russian market. However, results looks rather strange. At first I tried to figure out what data to use for risk and profit calculation. Averaging by month eliminates peaks, and make grath much smoother.
As a result, for russian stocks ETF (FXRL) I got for daily averaging montly profit 1,48% with risk 1,09% and for monthly averaging lower profit – 1,01% with higher risk – 4,03%.
Then, I decided to calculate portfolio risks and profits for different propotions of stocks and bonds (FXRB). For period from Jan-2017 till now profits for both tools are almost the same and extra stocks give extra risk.
However, getting 2017 period of time for calculation gives negative profit for stocks and looks like you should stay away from stocks at all and enjoy less risk with 14% profit.
However both tools are dealing with assets in USD and close profit is a mere a result of currency rate fluctuation. Still have many questions about all this data-tossing busyness. Looks more like a deeling with randomness rather then accurate forecasting