On February 24th Russia permanently changed. 100 days ago after brutal attack of Ukraine it’s not a developing country country in terms of economical development or authoritarian one in terms of political regime. It’s now an outcast country: toxic, unpopular and yes, dangerous. It’s in line now with North Korea, Iran, Belarus and other monstrous states.
What has Russia gained since the beginning of the war? Ground path to Crimea? Yes, after annexation in 2014 peninsular remained dependent from the rest of Ukraine in electricity and water supplies. Crimean bridge Russia built solved goods delivery issues but tourists were spending hours in traffic jams in heading to the vacation. Looks like the only reasonable gain. But what the price?
Economy is broken. Leading international companies left the country or in the middle of going out. Economy lost at least 10% of GDP this year. Russia gained some territories, but there, in Eastern Ukraine cities are leveled to the ground. It is required to spend billions of dollars to rebuild destroyed cities and relaunched economy there. And these money need to be spend in the middle of oil embargo from European Union.
Looking back this warfare doesn’t make much sense in geopolitical economical or any other aspects. The only reason I could imagine is isolation. Putin could not survive as a leader in an open country with independent Courts, free medias and real political opposition. He has been working hard since his appearance in president office in 2000 to destroy democracy, to shut down media, to bribe or arrest political rivals. And he succeeded – Russia entered 2022 as a authoritarian state. But obviously he needs more. Now Russia cut away from the rest of the world and he could enjoy his power without any borders and limits.